Why Dan Mogoria Stands A Better Chance Of Becoming Governor Of Busia

Hon. Dan Mogoria

This personal opinion may not go down very well especially among some of my Luhya people in Busia County but then my duty here is to tell you the truth, not the most popular story. The truth is that unless some Luhya aspirants swallow their pride to support one of their own, Mr Dan Mogoria is likely to be elected the next governor of Busia County on August 9th 2022. This is the truth.

By The Weekly Vision Online

As Kenyans approach the August 9th 2022 general election, some of the most bruising and interesting political contests will be witnessed at the county level, away from the presidency where Raila Odinga of Azimio la Umoja will battle it out against DP William Ruto of Kenya Kwanza.

The contest for the position of governor is likely to see some political bigwigs take a tumble, with some being consigned into political oblivion for good, case in point is Senator Amos Wako who may not survive this one whichever way the ODM party nomination process goes.

Hon Sakwa Bunyasi of ANC party

The voting pattern among the people of Busia offers us a very interesting scenario. The county is home to people of different ethnic backgrounds, the main ones being the majority Luhya and Teso communities. The Luhya have five constituencies of Nambale, Matayos, Funyula, Budalangi and Butula while the Teso have two constituencies namely Teso North and South.

Dan Mogoria only needs to pick a strong running mate from either Marachi or Bukhayo and he will be home and dry

Going by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) records, the number of registered voters as the country headed into the 2017 election, was as follows: Teso North 49,342 Teso South 61,342 Nambale 42,259 Matayos 56,841 Butula 57,685 Funyula 44,671 and Budalangi 38,417. According to the IEBC records posted recently on their website in February 2022, the seven constituencies in Busia have since recorded new voters as follow: Teso North 4,095 Teso South 4,130 Nambale 3,142 Matayos 4,268 Butula 4,102 Funyula 3,127 and Budalangi with 2,547. 

Dr Paul Otwoma with ODM party leader Raila Odinga

ODM has been rated the most popular political party in the county for several years now, this record is likely to remain intact even after the 2022 election is over. The party has attracted bigwigs for the gubernatorial seat i.e Paul Otwoma, Moses Mulomi, Florance Mutua and Amos Wako (though not confirmed). The new kid on the block, the DAP-K party associated with CS Eugen Wamalwa has attracted the interest of Lukas Meso and Dan Mogoria, ANC party of Musalia Mudavadi has Hon. Sakwa Bunyasi. As crowded as the field may look, all this will come down to party nomination where some of the aspirants will surely fall by the wayside. 

The three serious aspirants from Butula (Marachians), Moses Mulomi, Florance Mutua and Lukas Meso will be fighting between themselves for the control of just 61,787 votes in Butula, a huge disadvantage when faced with the likes of Dan Mogoria and Sakwa Bunyasi

However, clan politics is likely to take centre stage. Party affiliation will play a major role in determining who becomes the next governor in Busia County, but clannism will play a big role too, and as the saying goes, all politics is local. As such all aspirants will go into this election hoping to get backing from their respective home areas. 

Mr Dan Mogoria (Teso), Paul Otwoma (The Samia of Funyula), Luka Meso (Marachi), Moses Mulomi (Marachi), Florance Mutua (Marachi?) and Sakwa Bunyasi (Bakhayo) will all be hoping to receive the backings from their respective home areas. 

Paul Otwoma starts with a guaranteed 47,798 votes from Funyula and probably a good number of votes from the neighbouring Budalangi 40,964 in total 88,762 votes, he picked Mr Fred Odilo as his running mate, Mr Odilo hails from the populous Bukhayo. Whether this move works in Mr Otwoma’s favour is a debate for another day  

If Dan Mogoria (Teso) beats Lukas Meso (Marachi) to fly the DAP-K party flag then he stands a better chance of being elected as the second governor in Busia. He only needs to pick a strong and popular man or woman as a runningmate from either Marachi or Bukhayo, he will be home and dry. The Teso have already tested power with Ojaamongs administration as such, chances of them voting to a man for Mr Mogoria are very high. 

Mr Dan Mogoria goes into these elections with a strong number of votes behind him, 119,401 from the two Teso constituencies while his rivals Paul Otwoma, Sakwa Bunyasi and even Florance Mutua will come with 47,798, 106,510, 61,787 respectively. That leaves Budalangis as a battleground, open to all the aspirants. 

Marachi: The three aspirants from Butula (Marachians), Moses Mulomi, Florance Mutua and Lukas Meso will be fighting between themselves for the control of just 61,787 votes, a huge disadvantage when faced with the likes of Dan Mogoria and Sakwa Bunyasi. 

Bukhayo: Sakwa Bunyasi and Amos Wako will be battling it out for the control of the 106,510 votes.  

Samia: Hon Paul Otwoma starts with a guaranteed 47,798 and probably a good number of votes from the neighbouring Budalangi 40,964 in total 88,762 votes, he picked Mr Fred Odilo as his running mate, Mr Odilo hails from the populous Bukhayo. Whether this move works in Mr Otwoma’s favour is a debate for another day.  

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